A three-step methodology
The study covers a wide range of societal systems: ecosystems (marine, coastal, freshwater, soil, and forest), the food system, infrastructure and buildings, health and social cohesion, as well as the economy and financial sector.
The strength of this project lies in the combination of rigorous scientific analysis and a broad participatory process. Möbius played a key role in designing and implementing the stakeholder engagement process – from recruiting participants to facilitating and animating the workshops.
Step 1: Risk Identification
The study began with a literature review to map all potential climate and biodiversity risks for Belgium. Based on this analysis, a selection was made of those risks most relevant to the Belgian context and requiring further investigation.
Step 2: Risk Analysis
The selected risks were then examined in depth. A comprehensive literature review characterised their severity, likelihood, and our policy readiness. Interviews with scientists and policy experts were conducted to validate and enrich the findings, ensuring the analysis was both scientifically robust and policy relevant.
Step 3: Risk Prioritisation
Risks were prioritised using two explicit criteria: risk severity and policy readiness. This helps the National Security Council and policymakers to determine where action is most urgently needed. In this final phase, stakeholder engagement was key. Möbius, together with the CERAC-team and with the support of ULiège, designed and facilitated a carefully managed consultation process, bringing together academic experts, representatives of affected sectors, and key end users such as policymakers and security actors.
Through interactive workshops and a Delphi survey, a broadly supported list of priorities was established, ensuring the most urgent risks were clearly identified and collectively acknowledged.
Results
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National risk analysis: a scientifically grounded and widely acknowledged overview of Belgium’s priority climate risks. Discover the Belgian Climate Risk Assessment here.
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Policy-relevant insights: initial recommendations serving as input for the National Security Council and future adaptation plans.
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Strong stakeholder engagement: a successful participatory process bringing together science, policymakers, security actors, and affected sectors.
