Anticipating market-defining peaks
Coöperatie Hoogstraten, a leading growers’ cooperative, faced a familiar yet critical challenge. During the strawberry high season, they handle substantial peak volumes. Knowing exactly when these peaks will occur is essential to align commercial strategies with retailers and secure optimal prices for growers. With accurate foresight, promotional campaigns, planning, and distribution can be further optimised, increasing performance and resilience.
Our approach: AI as a strategic enabler
At Möbius, we believe in challenging the status quo to deliver breakthrough solutions. In close collaboration with Coöperatie Hoogstraten and Moet Lukken, we designed a proof-of-concept to estimate the forecastability of the peak volumes and estimate the ROI of the project. Starting small and gradually increasing the complexity is our preferred way of working. No big commitments are needed and the client is fully in charge.
Our solution combines advanced statistical techniques with machine learning algorithms. This way we were able to create a robust ensemble model that draws from more than 200 external and internal variables. These include weather conditions, crop characteristics, and historical acreage and yield data. We started with a statistical decomposition of the historic yield numbers and identified together with the strawberry experts of Coöperatie Hoogstraten relevant factors that could explain certain patterns and potentially the remaining noise.
In every step of the development and implementation, our client and partner were highly involved. The combination of business knowledge, strawberry expertise and data science resulted in a highly accurate forecasting engine that is integrated into a user-friendly web application and embedded seamlessly into day-to-day operations at every iteration.
From data to measurable impact
The AI-powered forecasting solution transformed Coöperatie Hoogstraten’s strategic positioning, with results that directly strengthen its market performance:
- Improved pricing and margins through smarter commercial actions – With accurate crop forecasts, Hoogstraten can anticipate market peaks and plan commercial initiatives — such as promotions and campaigns — at the right moment. While the forecast itself does not automatically lead to higher prices, it enables a more strategic and proactive approach that helps capture more value from available volumes and minimise the risk of price pressure.
- More efficient volume coordination – Reliable predictions allow closer alignment with customers on expected volumes, packaging, and logistics, preventing both surpluses and shortages.
- Reliable supply & stronger market trust – Unexpected shortfalls decreased, reinforcing the cooperative’s reputation for reliability and strengthening long-term retailer relationships.
Contrary to common misconceptions, advanced forecasting does not require expensive hardware or controlled environments. Our solution leverages existing data sources and is fully applicable in open-field agriculture. The result is a cost-effective, pragmatic innovation that makes cutting-edge AI accessible across the agricultural sector.
